With three weeks remaining before the Nov. 3 general election and early ballots already arriving in voters’ mailboxes, a new survey from HighGround Public Affairs shows Democratic candidates leading their Republican opponents across five major statewide races in Arizona. Released Tuesday, the poll of 400 likely voters conducted Oct. 6–8 indicates that Republican nominees are struggling to consolidate support within their own party, even as the GOP maintains a statewide voter registration advantage of roughly 300,000 voters.

In the race for governor, incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs leads Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs 50.5% to 33.7%, a margin of nearly 17 percentage points, according to KTAR News. Other top-ticket Democratic incumbents also hold double-digit advantages in the HighGround survey. Attorney General Kris Mayes leads Republican state Senate President Warren Petersen 51.5% to 36.5%, a 15-point gap, while Secretary of State Adrian Fontes leads Republican state Rep. Alexander Kolodin 45.5% to 33.8%, a margin of nearly 12 points, as detailed by Daily Kos.

Down the ballot in contests for open seats, Democrat Nick Mansour holds a 9-point lead over Republican Elijah Norton for state treasurer, and Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz leads current Republican State Treasurer Kimberly Yee by 6 points in the race for superintendent of public instruction. The HighGround survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Party Cohesion and Independent Voters Drive Survey Margins

Pollsters attributed the wide Democratic margins in the HighGround survey to a combination of independent voter support and unusually high defections among registered Republicans. Although the poll model assumes Republicans will make up an electorate 8 percentage points larger than Democrats—a typical composition for an Arizona midterm election—Republican candidates are capturing only 68% to 75% of their own party’s voters.

According to AZFamily, HighGround President Chuck Coughlin noted that a candidate typically needs 90% to 95% support from their own party to win a statewide race in Arizona, yet 25% to 30% of GOP voters are currently not backing the Republican ticket. Specifically, Biggs drew 70.6% support among Republican respondents. By comparison, HighGround’s polling at a similar point in the 2024 cycle showed Donald Trump holding 88% Republican support before eventually securing 93% of Arizona Republicans in exit polls.

Independent voters and shifting age demographics also factored heavily into the results. Unaffiliated voters favored Hobbs over Biggs by a margin of 58% to 20.5%. Additionally, Hobbs holds a lead of more than 10 percentage points among voters ages 50 to 64, a demographic group that Trump won by 22 points in 2024.

Coughlin linked the voter sentiment to frustration with President Trump and economic conditions, citing voter anger over gas and food prices, tariffs, and international conflicts. However, HighGround Senior Vice President of Research and Strategy Paul Bentz noted that statewide races typically tighten as Election Day approaches and suggested some Republican respondents may not be disclosing their true voting intentions to pollsters. Bentz also pointed to a Wednesday rally featuring Trump in Bullhead City, a Republican stronghold, as an effort by GOP campaigns to boost turnout among base voters.

The Biggs campaign pushed back against the HighGround findings, questioning both the polling numbers and the firm’s motivations. A campaign spokesperson noted that Coughlin’s company works for a firm financing pro-Hobbs attack advertisements. Coughlin defended the survey’s independence, stating that HighGround paid for the poll entirely with its own resources without outside assistance.

Contrasting Polls Show Tighter Contests

While the HighGround survey depicts double-digit leads for top Democratic incumbents, other recent polling suggests the statewide contests are significantly closer. Because these surveys utilized different sample sizes, methodologies, and timeframes, analysts caution that the varying numbers do not by themselves prove a definitive shift in individual voter behavior.

According to AZ Free News, a separate survey conducted Sept. 1–9 by Equis Research and detailed in an Oct. 6 memo found much narrower margins. Based on a broader sample of 1,214 registered voters with a full-sample margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, the Equis poll reported likely voters favoring Hobbs over Biggs by 6 points, 49% to 43%. In the secretary of state contest, Equis showed Fontes ahead of Kolodin by just 2 points, 46% to 44%, while Mayes and Petersen were deadlocked at 45% each in the attorney general race.

Earlier baseline polling also pointed to single-digit contests. An August online-panel survey by Noble Predictive Insights of 1,040 registered voters—including 923 likely voters with a margin of error of roughly 3.2 points—found Mayes leading Petersen 44% to 38% with 16% undecided, and Fontes ahead of Kolodin 41% to 35% with 20% undecided.

Historical context also underscores the typically tight nature of Arizona elections. As reported by Politico, Mayes won her 2022 race for attorney general by fewer than 300 votes, the narrowest statewide victory margin in Arizona history.

Stakes for State Governance and Policy

The November election will determine the balance of power in Phoenix and directly shape state regulatory, legal, and law enforcement policies. Between 2011 and 2023, Republicans held both the governorship and the attorney general’s office. Following the 2022 elections, Democrats gained control of the executive branch, while Republicans maintained majorities in both chambers of the state Legislature—a divide that has frequently resulted in legislative vetoes as Republicans lack the seats needed to override the governor.

In the race for attorney general, the candidates offer sharply different visions for how the state’s top law enforcement office should operate, according to The Center Square via Yahoo News. Mayes has campaigned on consumer protection, corporate accountability, and border security, noting her office has seized 27 million fentanyl pills and prosecuted fraud schemes. When asked about immigration enforcement, Mayes highlighted her calls for additional U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agents in Arizona.

Petersen, who is term-limited as state Senate president, has pledged to double the number of criminal investigators and prosecutors within the attorney general’s existing budget. He also promised to enter Arizona into a 287(g) immigration enforcement agreement with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which authorizes state and local police to perform limited federal immigration enforcement duties. Furthermore, Petersen criticized Mayes for declining to defend certain state statutes in court, such as the Save Women’s Sports Act, which restricts biological males from competing in women’s sports—a law Petersen intervened to defend in his legislative capacity.

Beyond the executive branch, the trajectory of the statewide ticket could influence down-ballot legislative and congressional races. Republicans have controlled the Arizona State Senate since 1992 and the State House since 1966, majorities that Coughlin suggested could face pressure if top-of-the-ticket trends hold. At the federal level, separate internal modeling by Noble Predictive Insights reported by The Center Square gives Democrats a 3-point edge in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District and a 1-point advantage in the 6th Congressional District, two contests that could help determine party control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

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